Mum on Ukraine & Short on Climate

G20 Avoids Rupture and Rapture

Multilaterals September 11, 2023

To text or not to text? That was the question. It took diplomats five days of frantic talks to find an answer. In the end, a compromise statement – of 83 paragraphs – was duly produced and unanimously approved by the G20 leaders assembled in New Delhi for their annual summit.

The text failed to condemn Russia for its war of aggression against Ukraine but did, curiously, include a pledge to respect the territorial integrity of that country and a promise to work towards a ‘just peace’. Both pledge and promise were signed by Russian Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov who stood in for President Vladimir Putin, absent due to an international arrest warrant against him. In March, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague charged the Russian president with the abduction of Ukrainian children.

President Luiz Inácio da Silva of Brazil, also present in New Delhi, caused considerable surprise by stating that his country would welcome Mr Putin at the 2024 G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro where he would not face arrest. Though a signatory to the Rome Statute, the ICC founding document, Brazil would decline to enforce the arrest order in violation of its treaty obligations and risking expulsion from the court. Then again, as in De Gaulle’s prescient words, Brazil always found being ‘serious’ quite challenging.

The New Delhi G20 declaration was hailed as definitive proof of a marked geopolitical shift towards the Global South. The United States and European Union suffered an embarrassing defeat after agreeing to the deletion of all passages condemning Russia for the war in Ukraine. It was either that, or allowing the G20 to split and founder on discord.

Western delegates put a brave face on their climbdown. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen flatly denied that the G20 had watered down its position on the war in Ukraine and called the statement ‘substantially very strong’ in its rejection of territorial acquisitions by force. US Secretary of State echoed those words and added that all leaders he met in New Delhi expressed a desire for the war to end on ‘just and durable’ terms. The 2022 G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, ended with a statement that called for Russia’s ‘complete and unconditional withdrawal’ from Ukraine.

Problem Solver

The successful conclusion – with a joint declaration – of the summit was particularly pleasing to Prime Minister Narendra Modi who hosted the event and had staked his reputation on it. The Indian leader cultivates an image of his country as global problem solver.

Over the past few years high-level ministerial meetings have repeatedly failed to reach consensus on thorny issues such as Ukraine and climate change, with participants settling instead for an ‘outcome document’ detailing areas of agreement and discord. The absence of both the Russian and Chinese presidents in New Delhi ultimately did not reduce the meeting’s relevance as had initially been feared. President Xi Jinping of China gave no reason for his non-attendance.

Prime Minister Modi reaffirmed and strengthened India’s position as a champion of the Global South by ushering the African Union into the G20 as a permanent member. A spokesperson of the Chinese foreign ministry quickly pointed out that Beijing was the first to advocate for the inclusion.

Veteran diplomat and former Indian High Commissioner to South Africa Virendra Gupta (no relation to the brothers of state capture fame) stressed that the role and voice of the Global South will be much strengthened. South African president Cyril Ramaphosa congratulated the host country on its efforts to make the G20 more inclusive and expressed hope that the continent will now be able to help shape a ‘new global financial and governance architecture’. Vacuous rhetoric was put shamelessly on display in India.

Big Bucks

Whilst the final G20 declaration calls for the tripling of renewable energy generation capacity worldwide, it omits to mention the need for the phasing out of fossil fuel. Instead, the document merely states that the use of coal must be reduced ‘in line with national circumstances’.

During preparatory meetings of G20 climate and energy ministers in July, China and Saudi Arabia led the efforts to block an agreement on a timeline for the ending of the fossil fuel era. Riyadh also opposed the setting of renewable energy targets and proposed greater support for carbon capture and storage technologies as an alternative.

A global fossil fuel phase-out returns to the top of the agenda at the COP28 United Nations climate summit scheduled to take place later this year in Dubai. COP28 president-designate Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE minister of Industry and Technology and CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said that he expects a global agreement in Dubai on an ambitious renewable energy target.

In New Delhi, G20 members also recognised the need to marshal up to $4 trillion (£3.2 trillion) annually in financial support for developing countries to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. To this end, the G20 will seek to reform multilateral lending institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, asked for an increase in the fund’s resources before the end of the year and reminded the G20 leaders of their earlier promise to deliver $100 billion (£80 billion) annually in climate financing. The IMF has so far secured around $40 billion (£32 billion) to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change through its Resilience and Sustainability Trust.

Drop in Bucket

US president Joe Biden lend his support to a push for an increase of the lending power of the World Bank. He pledged to expand credit lines to low- and middle-income countries by $25 billion (£20 billion) and called on other G20 members to follow the US example. World Bank president Ajay Banga argued for greater ‘risk appetite’ and a ‘sense of urgency’ in order for the institution to make a difference: “After we deliver a better bank, we will need a bigger bank.”

At COP26 (Glasgow 2021) it was revealed that up to $125 trillion (£100 trillion) in climate-related financing is required to reach net zero by 2050. Around half of that investment is expected to take place in the Asia Pacific region with India and China the major beneficiaries. Further analysis suggests that private actors – from commercial banks and institutional investors to private equity and venture capital – can supply two-thirds of the required funds, if – a big ‘if’ – barriers that limit investment, such as political risk and regulatory constraints, can be removed.

In light of these large numbers, President’s Biden’s $25 billion and even the annual $100 billion promised by the G20 represent but a drop in the proverbial bucket.