Almost two months to the day after the September 26 federal election Germany, a three-party coalition was unveiled, tasked with ushering in the post-Merkel era with social democrat Olaf Scholz (63) at the helm as chancellor. With the SPD (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) at its core, the coalition rests on a solid majority in the Bundestag thanks to the support of the Greens (Die Grünen) and the business-friendly FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei). All three coalition parties booked solid gains at the polls with the Greens almost doubling their presence in the federal parliament, becoming kingmakers as a result.

The new government has placed the greening of the economy, Europe’s largest, at the core of its mission, promising to set aside two percent of the German territory for wind energy generation and pledging to source eighty percent of the country’s electricity from renewables by 2030. Germany is to become carbon-neutral by 2045.

The ‘traffic light’ coalition – named for the parties’ traditional colours – also wants to fully digitise the public administration, legalise cannabis, build 400,000 houses annually, and lower the voting age to sixteen, amongst others. The political deal that binds the three parties together comprises some 177 pages – 52,000 words in total or, as The Economist dryly noted, ‘a shade more than The Great Gatsby’.

With a moderately leftish slant, the new German cabinet is set to tackle the issues that the outgoing government of Chancellor Angela Merkel was either unable or unwilling to address. Though far from revolutionary, the centre of gravity of German politics has shifted in tune with the times towards a more proactive implementation of the full suite of progressive good intentions, often mentioned by politicians but seldom acted upon.

The Merkel Formula

The Merkel formula for longevity at the top includes discretion and modesty, a supple bending to the winds of change, the avoidance of controversy, and – most importantly – the noticeable absence of a grand vision. These elements seem, however, largely absent in the new coalition, leading some pundits to anticipate a much livelier, and possibly less stable, political scene.

On November 22, just a few days before the unveiling of the tripartite coalition, Angela Merkel celebrated sixteen years as chancellor of Germany. Helmut Kohl served slightly longer, by just about three weeks (1982-1998), although Otto von Bismarck still holds the record for longest-serving chancellor with 22 years and 262 days in office (1867–1890) – an accomplishment virtually impossible to equal.

During the latter part of the Merkel Era, the German chancellor also was, arguably, the last remaining adult on the global stage, being thrust into the role of leader of the free world and solving, though perhaps not quite by design, the post-modern version of the age-old ‘German Question’ – more of conundrum facing a nation too small for a global superpower yet too much of a hegemon in its own neighbourhood.

Pivotal Position

By eschewing grandstanding and even grandiloquence, Chancellor Merkel deftly – or by fortunate accident – manoeuvred Germany into a pivotal position within the European Union and, from there, on the world stage – stepping on very few toes along the way. Alone amongst her peers, she always kept her cool even as US President Donald Trump called her ‘stupid’ and a Russian ‘stooge’ in 2019.

The closest Chancellor Merkel came to blowing her top was in 2013 over allegations that US intelligence agencies had hacked her mobile phone to listen in on high-level conversations. In a terse call with then-President Barack Obama, Mrs Merkel voiced her exasperation and reminded him that such practices were ‘completely unacceptable’. According to news weekly Der Spiegel, the chancellor was said to be ‘livid’ over the breach of trust between allies and demanded an immediate tightening of security measures surrounding her office and cabinet.

However, not even Russian president Vladimir Putin managed to faze the German iron lady. Mrs Merkel kept her poise and apparently remained unimpressed during a 2007 meeting at Mr Putin’s Sochi country estate when the host called his black labrador Koni into the room. Of course, it had not escaped the former KGB lieutenant-colonel that his guest had been bitten by a dog in 1995 and did not feel particularly comfortable in their presence. Regarding the incident, Mrs Merkel later remarked: “I understand why he had to do this – to prove he’s a man afraid of his own weakness; Russia has nothing, no successful politics or economy. All they have is this.”

Uncomfortable

For someone visibly uncomfortable speaking in public – a great communicator she is not – and clearly reluctant to engage in the dark art of geopolitics, Chancellor Merkel has accomplished the almost impossible: to make Berlin a global powerbroker.

When the Chancery refuses to pick up the phone – as it did after the Russian annexation of the Crimea in 2014 – Moscow suffers an immediate funk. Even President Xi Jinping of China eagerly taps into his usually well-hidden reservoir of tact when palavering with the German chancellor. The Chinese president realises full well that Mrs Merkel speaks for Europe and without her approving nod the stalled EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment is unlikely to ever materialise.

In a sense, Angela Merkel has been the ideal leader of Germany: unprepossessing, understated, and disinclined – or at least reluctant – to wield (soft) power whilst still willing to be swayed by solid argument – or, indeed, public opinion.

As such, Merkel followed the well-worn yet time-honoured advice of Theodore Roosevelt, the 26^th US president, whose Big Stick ideology (‘speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far’ – originally a West African proverb) pointedly included amongst its five essential elements provisions to act justly towards other nations; to allow a defeated adversary to save face; and, crucially, to never bluff. The difference is, of course, Germany’s well-justified aversion of applied hard power.

Perhaps Chancellor Merkel also took a leaf out of US President William Howard Taft’s (successor to Theodore Roosevelt) ill-fated Dollar Diplomacy by leveraging Germany’s economic might to further the country’s broader interests. However, contrary to the Taft Administration, Mrs Merkel’s government managed to make the approach into a relative success on the back of Germany’s financial hegemony in the European Union which it effectively serves as fiscal anchor and monetary adjudicator.

However, Germany’s ‘sado-monetarism’ – derived from the collective memory of the interbellum chaos handed down over successive generations – has also saddled the country with an unenviable legacy of underspending on public infrastructure, a severely stressed pension system, a rigid and outdated public sector unfit for (digital) purpose, and a population grown tired of endless austerity.

Brown Coal

A former environmental minister under Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Mrs Merkel curiously boasts a somewhat iffy record on climate change. Her snap decision to shut down the country’s nuclear plants after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, has pushed Germany towards greater dependency on natural gas imported from Russia and locally-mined lignite (‘brown coal’) – the most polluting, because least energy efficient, type of coal.

Although the federal government has promised to close all lignite mines by 2038 – and has earmarked €15 billion for the redevelopment of the scarred earth left behind and the retraining of thousands of miners – communities affected by the closings complain that a comprehensive future vision seems to be missing.

That is a complaint heard more often when considering the Merkel Era: Although in her sixteen years at the helm, Chancellor Merkel weathered several crises and kept her country on an even keel, she has done so by forging consensus and has shown a certain degree of complacency. Moreover, her reluctance to wield power in Europe has prevented the EU from dealing with many of its structural deficiencies. Mrs Merkel is, in fact, a master in kicking the can down the road. To ‘merkel’ (merklen) has quite literally become a byword for inaction.

In present-day Germany, there is little to no debate about the future as if most Germans are quite content to leave thing as they are, placing their trust in the chancellor to manage whatever crisis comes along without unduly affecting their lives or livelihoods.

After all those years in power the Christian Democrat CDU/CSU seems to have run out of ideas as became abundantly clear earlier this year during the lacklustre election campaign which sorely lacked substance and was more of a horserace than a presentation of ideas and visions. Part of the problem is that, unwittingly or otherwise, Mrs Merkel has cast her party in her own image, ditching ideology and programmatic platforms for ethics and reaction. Whilst admirable in principle, the Merkel approach also makes for boring politics with voters slowly becoming apathetic.

Berlin-based author Konstantin Richter tried to decipher the Merkel enigma in his novel The Chancellor and concluded that the aversion to ideology stems from her experiences growing up in East Germany: “She witnessed ideology collapse and its believers turn into non-believers almost overnight.” She also freely admits to drawing inspiration from her Lutheran faith which not only provides her with an inner moral compass but also deprives her of preconceptions. Merkel’s message to voters was one of the calm confidence that, until recently, used to be the preserve of the British: “I shall handle such dramas as cross my desk calmly and rationally and without anything so distracting as a project.”

Inscrutable

Growing up in East Germany, a paranoid society characterised by mass surveillance, Mrs Merkel acquired the virtues of ambiguity and patience early on. Der Spiegel called her as inscrutable as ‘sphinxes, divas, and queens’. She tries hard not to antagonise her opponents to avoid polarisation. In this, she has been remarkably successful. In Europe, Germany is the most centrist country – by far. As a result, Germany has largely been spared the increasingly acerbic public discourse prevalent elsewhere on the continent.

Mrs Merkel is about to leave the chancery on a decidedly high note with an approval rating of around eighty percent. Though many Germans appreciate her steady hand and serene demeanour, most also clamour for change, albeit softly for fear they may get too much of it.

Whenever she did face a choice, Mrs Merkel carefully considered the available options – and public opinion – before making a decision which then was never to be looked back on. Thus, it was with the refugee crisis of 2015 when she opened the country’s borders to an estimated 1.2 million war refugees from Syria and elsewhere. It was the preferred option even if it indirectly fuelled the rise of the far-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) for few Germans would have stomached border guards using force to turn back desperate masses of people.

Demographics also went into the equation. With its ageing population, Germany desperately needs immigrants to keep its factories humming. In fact, an estimated 400,000 newcomers have since found gainful employment.

Although the influx threatened to alienate the CDU’s more conservative sister party CSU, Chancellor Merkel’s repeated assurances that “there cannot and shall not be another year like 2015” prevented a lasting rift. The move also cemented Germany’s reputation for being fearless in the face of great challenges. Earlier, the reunification with the East Germany imposed an estimated €2 trillion surcharge on the country’s taxpayers which scarcely caused a societal ripple.

Concerns

In Europe, the change of guard in Berlin causes some concern. Chancellor Merkel was much appreciated for her coolness and showered with words of praise – and a standing ovation – during her last European Council summit at the Egmont Palace in Brussel – number 107 by most counts. Council President Charles Michel declared Mrs Merkel a ‘monument’ for her ‘extreme sobriety and simplicity’ as well as the ‘shining light and compass’ of the European project.

Not everybody was quite so enamoured of Merkel’s legacy in Europe. A former British member of the European Parliament (MEP), Andrew Duff, expressed a dissenting view: “She prioritised EU unity over reform, leaving the union more disunited than ever, with one man overboard.”

However, Mr Duff is in a minority of (almost) one. Most MEPs valued Mrs Merkel’s steadfast refusal to throw her country’s weight around during the Brexit negotiations, leaving the entire process in the hands of the European Commission and its chief negotiator Michel Barnier. Increasingly frantic calls for help from the British prime minister went unanswered in Berlin or were met with kind but hollow words of understanding and commiseration.

In a farewell interview published in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, Chancellor Merkel expressed concern over the increased difficulty in reaching compromise between EU member states over thorny issues such as immigration and the rule of law amid growing nationalism: “It’s getting harder and harder at the moment and I’m quite worried.” Mrs Merkel also noted that compromise-building is ‘essential’ in democracy. She said that her defence of the euro and the preservation of freedom of movement across the Schengen Area were amongst the most important task she set for her government.

Just before leaving office, Chancellor Merkel warned that European leaders and lawmakers itching for a fight with Poland over its loose interpretation of the rule of law are courting disaster. She is concerned that the belligerent attitude in Brussels and Warsaw may result in a geopolitical setback for the union with Warsaw becoming both more authoritarian and susceptible to outside influence. During her last council summit, Mrs Merkel pleaded for renewed patience with Poland. However, she met stiff opposition from Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte who believes the EU’s core values are at stake. He demands swift and strong reprisals against member states that undermine the rule of law such as Poland and Hungary.

Formerly the closest of allies and still good buddies when it comes to battling the supposed fiscal profligacy of ‘Club Med’ member states, Mrs Merkel and Mr Rutte – eleven years in power as prime minister of The Netherlands – have drifted apart on a number of core issues, including migration and the issuance of eurobonds, or the need to financially assist the bloc’s southern member states in the wake of the Corona Pandemic.

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Merkel’s 10 Lessons on Applied Power

1. Speak softly
2. Respect opponents
3. Seek compromise
4. Exercise patience
5. Don’t panic
6. Unite
7. Understand
8. Wield soft power only
9. Keep to ethical values
10. Listen Attentively

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Grand Alliances

Prime Minister Rutte, quite temperamental whenever events deviate from his ‘normal’, is essentially the polar opposite of the German chancellor who prefers listening to talking and patience to attitude. This helps explain why, since Brexit, The Netherlands and France have drawn considerably closer than before. President Emmanuel Macron of France, likewise without a ‘mute’ button, needs allies if he is to stand a chance of stepping in the chancellor’s shoes. Prime Minister Rutte has so far been the only friend to join President Macron as the Élysée Palace seeks to elevate its EU profile.

Little noted, France’s recently concluded comprehensive treaty with Italy presages a Europe of three major powers. The Franco-Italian tie-up is modelled on the 1963 Élysée Treaty which cemented the axis that has since set the tone in Europe – and defined its centre of gravity. For then-French president Charles de Gaulle, the hastily arranged treaty was a way to bring Germany into France’s orbit – and keep it there. As such, the Élysée Treaty was essentially about limiting the outsized post-war role of the US in Europe.

The yet unnamed Paris-Rome treaty is meant to put a gentle check on German power. Italy and France woke up to the possibilities of their cooperation only last year during the caustic discussions about the financing of post-pandemic recovery and growth plans. Acting in unison and much to their own surprise, Paris and Rome managed to override Germany’s instinctive opposition to common debt instruments.

Much to the chagrin of the bloc’s penny-pinchers, united in the informal Hanseatic League 2.0, Chancellor Merkel dropped her veto on the issuance of eurobonds in recognition of the need to hold the union together and encourage a measure of continent-wide solidarity. Whilst the hapless Prime Minister Rutte was busy wagging his righteous finger at the supposedly lazy, womanising, and wine-guzzling Southerners – fighting a hopeless rear guard battle he could not possibly win – Mrs Merkel remained the lone voice of reason, ultimately opting for a pragmatic approach over an ideologically-inspired one.

Hotheads

In a world of hotheads and cynical wannabe potentates, Merkel’s Germany stood apart, but not aloof, as the last bastion of decency – a testament to, and crown on, the country’s remarkable return to the epicentre of civilisation. Alone amongst world leaders, Mrs Merkel could speak with authority – and be believed.

In a six-country survey conducted only months before she was due to leave office, polling site YouGov found that the German Chancellor enjoyed almost universal respect and admiration with ratings varying between +61 (Spain) and +15 (UK). Of all world leaders, only US President Joe Biden, possibly benefitting from a ‘not Trump’ boost, came anywhere close to Mrs Merkel’s popularity. Contemporaries such as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia were stuck on negative ratings in all six countries with Mr Jinping in a dead heat with Mr Putin for the title of least admired world leader.

Under Merkel, Germany has managed to ditch its reputation as a land of humourless and fairly unhappy people. According to the Pew Research Center, Germans are now only bested by the Dutch and Swedes on economic optimism. In its recent overview of EU public opinion, Pew surveyors also found that most Europeans consider the amount of influence Germany enjoys over the union just about right with only the Greeks, Italians, and Spanish dissenting and wishing for the Germans to tone down.

Learning on the Job

Chancellor Merkel got the message to lower her voice during the Greek debt crisis of the early 2010s which almost triggered the collapse of the euro. At the time, she, and her rather tactless finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, were demanding tough austerity and deep fiscal and labour reforms as the only way out of the banking crisis. This insistence on fiscal rectitude earned Mr Schäuble the moniker ‘Ayatollah of Finance’.

In 2012, Mr Schäuble publicly clashed with then-IMF President Christine Lagarde over allowing Greece more time to implement painful reforms and spending cuts with the German flatly refusing to consider any concessions. After photoshopped images and caricatures appeared in the Greek press of both Mrs Merkel and Mr Schäuble in Nazi uniform, complete with swastikas and ‘toothbrush’ moustaches, the chancellor found room to back down and rein in her finance minister – and get the EU, including its more recalcitrant member states, to accept a massive third bailout package for Greece.

It proved a watershed moment that would reverberate all the way to the current Corona Pandemic and the severe economic damaged it wrought amongst less financially resilient EU member states. Instead of demanding the affected countries to become ‘more German’ – as she had initially told Greece – Chancellor Merkel almost immediately backed calls for a generously-sized €750 billion recovery fund (‘Next Generation EU’ fund) and even agreed to allow the European Commission to raise part of the necessary cash through the issuance of bonds. She justified her novel stance – a volte face of note – by the need to bring Europe out of the crisis ‘united and in solidarity’.

Legacy

That is the legacy Chancellor Merkel leaves Europe: a philosophy to paste over differences, a willingness to compromise, and a determination to stick to the original idea of a United Europe as defined in the preamble of the 1957 Treaty of Rome which founded the European Economic Community (precursor to the EU), created the Common Market, and moreover bluntly stated that the entire project entails forging ‘an ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe’ – a phrase as simple as often misread or misunderstood.

Chancellor Merkel, growing up east of the Berlin Wall and in a fractured continent, ultimately understood that what her peers are eager to confine to history books: the acute, present, and continued need to promote European unity through pragmatism, a pooling of sovereignty, and a commitment to common institutions and values.

She admirably managed to place Germany at the very centre of this ambitious pursuit without causing undue offence or stepping on long nationalist toes – a remarkable accomplishment that may yet earn her a place alongside Otto von Bismarck who, after all, only shaped a nation out of disparate statelets and principalities whilst Angela Merkel managed to keep an entire continent together – a contingent of 27 likewise dissimilar nations – during a financial meltdown and an almost unprecedented pandemic.

Germany’s new chancellor Olaf Scholz has big shoes to fill.

Cover photo: German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

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• © 2020 Photo Chancellor Angela Merkel by Russian Presidential Executive Office
• © 2014 Photo MEP Andrew Duff by Diliff
• © 2014 Photo Minister Wolfgang Schäuble by International Monetary Fund