The Art and Science of Unscrambling Eggs

How to unscramble eggs. That is the question (and task) facing UK Prime Minister Keith Starmer as he meets his country’s neighbours tomorrow for a one-day summit of European leaders. The informal gathering in Blenheim, birthplace of Winston Churchill, takes place under the aegis of the European Political Community (EPC), an initiative launched by President Emanuel Macron of France in 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More than fifty heads of state and governments are expected to attend.

The EPC includes non-EU states in a comprehensive forum set up to express solidarity with Ukraine and to coordinate a response. It is not an organisation, has no permanent secretariat, and may be equated to a talking shop. Notwithstanding the EPC’s lack of heft and vague imprimatur, the forum offers Prime Minister Starmer is chance to present his credentials as a good neighbour and constructive partner.

Mr Starmer, or Sir Keith, has not made a secret of his desire to reset relations with the continent in general and the European Union in particular. Whilst pleased with the change of guard in London and the arrival of a less antagonistic government, Brussels remains wary of British intentions.

The EU is particularly keen to avoid granting concessions, however small, to a non-member state. Ever since the UK handed in its Article 50 notice, the formal declaration of the country’s intention to exit the bloc, it has tries in all ways imaginable, and then some, to retain the more valuable of EU membership privileges. At the time, this actively pursued policy was known as ‘cakeism’.

Baby Steps

Though the EU has since moved on, Prime Minister Starmer is aware of the lingering ill will in Brussels towards his country. Any rapprochement must involve baby steps and include issues that are of value to the bloc such as fisheries access, youth mobility, citizen rights, and security cooperation.

With the eurosceptic Tories soundly defeated at the polls and out of power, Brussels looks forward to improved relations, if not in substance than at least in tone. The European Commission also seems grateful to no longer have to deal with blustering emissaries from London who, as a rule, came to negotiations armed with jingoism but little else.

The Labour cabinet seems poised to offer Brussels a new UK-EU defence and security partnership, covering not only military cooperation but also energy, climate change, pandemics, and possibly even immigration. The broad scope of the deal seeks to pacify the French who are still fuming over the cancellation of a multi-billion dollar order to equip the Australian navy with a dozen conventional submarines. The deal, already signed, was scuppered by the UK and the US which offered Australia nuclear-powered subs instead in addition to a tri-national defence agreement (AUKUS).

The UK-EU defence and security partnership is, however, not offered as a formal pact for that would take many years to negotiate. Given that after the shenanigans of previous governments, the UK is no longer considered a reliable partner, Mr Starmer’s offer may elicit a degree of scepticism in Brussels.

Entente Welcomed

In a first off-the-record comment, the European Commission suggested that before anything else is discussed, the UK must comply with all the articles of the Withdrawal Agreement. That said, most EU leaders welcome the entente cordiale set in motion by the prime minister. Commission officials indicated that they are ‘in principle’ willing to entertain the idea of a future high-level UK-EU summit to iron out differences, clear the air, and allow for a ‘reset’ of relations.

With the war in Ukraine sill raging, the possible comeback of Donald Trump, and a return of American isolationism, there is a growing sense – and realisation – that the UK and EU need to support each other to jointly prepare for, and face, any scenario.

Now that the most fanatical and irrational Brexit supporters have been ejected from Parliament, a growing number of MPs is suggesting Prime Minister Starmer accept economic reality and draw closer to the EU – and even consider ways for the UK to regain access, in whole or in part, to the common market.

For now, though, that is a few bridges too far. Mr Starmer has publicly ruled out rejoining the single market which would imply embracing the EU’s four foundational freedoms (no opt-outs allowed). Instead, he wants to ‘deepen’ relations by relaxing border checks and streamlining import/export requirements and paperwork.

Appeals from Industry

Mostly absent and silent during Brexit discussions, British industry leaders have begun speaking up and out against the folly of leaving the EU. Andreas Utermann, former chief of Allianz Global Investors, surmised that successive Tory governments have “failed to demonstrate any tangible benefit to being outside the bloc.” British Chambers of Commerce Director-General Shevaun Haviland pointed out that tighter migration rules and rising costs and complexity of exports were throttling investment and growth.

Sir Mike Rake, former chairperson of BT Group, KPMG, and easyJet, called Brexit “the single biggest act of economic and reputational self harm in our modern history, compounded by an ideologically driven exit treaty which continues to damage our economy with increasing and unnecessary frictional trade and regulatory costs.”

Moving carefully, Prime Minister Starmer must undo fourteen years of often acerbic antagonism directed at the EU. He also inherited a barebones trade deal, hastily put together by Boris Johnson to ‘get Brexit done’ in which the UK made countless last-minute concessions to avoid stumbling out of the bloc without anything to show for it. Understandably, Brussels is not eager to revisit that most advantageous deal.

However, the change of tone and pitch in British public discourse is welcome as is Mr Starmer offering an olive branch. It is probably too early to think of a great reset, but the path towards that goal seems cleared of obstacles. The unscrambling can begin.

Cover photo: UK Prime Minister Sir Keith Starmer seeks rapprochement with EU.

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© 2024 Photo by The Morning Star