Shakespearean Politics: A Mad King, Court Jesters, and Dark Forces

Brave New World

Brave New World July 12, 2024 Like

As a rule, nations outlive their leaders. Ask the King of Denmark. Nations learn to move on (‘it outlives me when I’m gone’)*. So too will the United States, although the country may no longer be recognisable as a beacon of freedom, the arsenal of democracy, or, indeed, a place where ‘huddled masses’ may find refuge and opportunity.

President Joe Biden has by all accounts done a pretty good job. He kept the economy humming along at an impressive clip and kept the country out of war whilst ensuring support for Ukraine as it battles the Russian invader. Though the US Federal Reserve pursued a tight monetary policy as it fought inflation, unemployment was kept at or near historic lows, consumer confidence crept up, and household finances were strengthened. In fairness to Mr Trump, his disappointing performance on the economic front was partially caused by the Corona Pandemic.

It’s Not Just the Economy

But of course there is more to winning a US presidential election than just the economy. Now that their finances are mostly in order, the attention of US voters has turned to immigration which during the Biden Administration reached heights not visited before. During Mr Trump’s four years in office, about two million undocumented newcomers – aka ‘inadmissible arrivals’ – were processed. In the first three years of the Biden Administration, that number tripled to six million.

It is the one (big) blemish on the administration’s record. However, most social indicators turned positive over the past three years: crime and opioid deaths are down, marriages and birth rates are up. More people are covered by some form of health insurance than ever before and homelessness, whilst still unacceptably high, is down with most veterans moving off the streets and into social housing.

However, immigration and old age have turned Joe Biden into an exceptionally unpopular president. His approval rating currently stands at just 38 percent (according to Gallup). No incumbent has ever been re-elected with such a low number. At the same point in time in 2020, when then-President Trump was seeking for re-election, his approval rating stood at 47 percent. Even so, he was roundly defeated.

Close to sixty percent of Democrats say that Mr Biden is too old to be an effective president. Almost three-quarters of registered voters agree. The president, who stubbornly refuses to step aside for someone younger and more vigorous, now depends on a major gaffe or misstep from Mr Trump for voters ignore his age.

With Mr Trump majoring in outrageous claims, absurd ideas, bare-faced lies, and serious misconduct, it seems improbable that he can still shock the nation into recoil. Now a convicted felon and condemned to pay close to $90 million in damages for sexual assault, his popularity has not been dented. Trump supporters have taken all in stride and stand by their idol.

Funk of Note

Since the momentously disastrous debate of two weeks ago in Atlanta, televised by CNN, Democrats have been in a funk of note. Major donors have deserted the Biden campaign and Hollywood stars (George Clooney et al) launched a great many appeals for the president to put the country first and decline the nomination. The New York Times embarked on an all-out assault, pulling no punches to get the president to see and understand the gravity of the moment and convince (or cajole) him to cease and desist.

Amidst all calls for President Biden to step back into retirement, it is rather strange that nobody seems to remember that, almost five years ago, he promised to serve only one term. He did so, admittedly, only to party leaders, campaign staff, and a few major donors, but the assurances given at the time have been well documented.

Already during the 2019 campaign, some expressed doubts about Mr Biden’s advanced age and his ability to govern effectively. The candidate did repeatedly insinuate that he would probably not seek re-election, but made no public pledge to that affect.

His refusal to cede the stage shows President Biden in another light: that of a narcissist heading for self-destruction. It is an embarrassing sight and a fate not deserved. To countless Americans, looking to vote for anyone but Mr Trump, President Biden’s obstinacy means that they must now face an impossible choice and decide who’s more ill-suited for the top job: a convicted felon or a good man with a faltering mind.

Meanwhile, the Trump camp is buoyant with excitement and optimism as it prepares for a landslide win come November, handing the former president a strong mandate to, essentially, do as he pleases and remake America in his own image. The outcome of the campaign is celebrated as a fait accompli with the only question remaining if Republicans will manage to carry both the House and Senate.

The strategy of the Trump campaign – no rocket science needed – is a simple one: portray the opponent as a stuttering and stammering; barely able to walk without assistance, and feeling his way like a blind man. However, within that approach lurks a danger: should Democrats somehow manage to ease the president off the ticket and present a more suitable nominee, the Republicans’ strategy will likely backfire spectacularly.

* From the Broadway musical Hamilton.

Brave New World is a series of shorter articles – mini-essays often slightly contrarian – that was started in the aftermath of the Corona Pandemic as the world tried to make sense of what just happened and adjust to a new normal. Whilst the effects of the pandemic have since waned, leaving only barely discernible ripples, the world order has suffered continued upheaval.

On Europe’s eastern fringe, a vicious war rages; the Palestinian conflict has flared up as never before; China threatens the stability in the South China Sea, crossed by one of the world’s most important shipping lanes; the hard right is on the march in Europe, and in the United States a good man refuses to acknowledge the inevitable ravages of old age, clinging almost desperately to power, and leaving voters little choice but to go with another old man whose democratic credentials are doubtful if not absent.

In light of this conspiracy of events – the gathering, if you will, of a ‘perfect storm’ – CFI Press has decided to resurrect its Brave New World series in an attempt to follow developments, map their consequences, and distil sense from the ‘Bitches Brew’ simmering on the stove and coming perilously close to a spill. Brave New World instalments will be published every Friday.