John Magufuli and Hope Forlorn

Tanzania

Africa March 19, 2018

He earned his nickname – The Bulldozer – as minister of Roads; today the handle applies equally well to his new job as president of Tanzania. John Magufuli is all about flair. He enjoys playing his audience on national television and has a keen sense for opportunity.

Perhaps taking a cue from US president Donald Trump, Mr Magufuli particularly likes to fire people in full view of the nation. His eagerness to sack officials he deems incompetent is often mistakenly celebrated as a sign of efficiency in governance. Alas, it is not. Displaying autocratic inclinations, Mr Magufuli has of late turned into a populist, taking decisions aimed for effect rather than the country’s best interest.

In a disconcerting move, President Magufuli is taking Tanzania back to its darker times by going after foreign-owned businesses, slapping on new taxes and hiking existing ones. Out of the blue, the local subsidiary of Canadian mining company Barrick Gold was ordered to pay no less than $190 billion – almost four times the country’s GDP – in revised taxes, interest, and fines. In the end, Barrick Gold agreed to pay $300m and hand the state a 16% stake in its mining operations. The company also promised, albeit rather vaguely, to ‘equally split’ with the government any ‘economic benefits’ deriving from its mines in the country.

The president’s ire is not only directed at Western businesses; the Chinese have also been meted out the Magufuli Treatment. Companies from China completing infrastructure projects in Tanzania have reported being forced to pay surprise taxes and comply with new regulation which is apparently being imposed arbitrarily.

President Magufuli has reportedly complained repeatedly that today’s Chinese behave much different from the cadres sent out by Chairman Mao in the 1970s to help with the construction of the Tazara railway between Tanzania and Zambia: “They are just not the same.”

Political Clampdown

President Magufuli also dislikes dissent and banned opposition rallies, closed down independent newspapers, and – reportedly – ordered the disappearance of a few people who refused to toe the line despite receiving numerous warnings. Joseph Mbilinyi, a member of parliament for Mbeya Urban and a popular musician who received the most votes of all 264 legislators, was lucky and got off with a five month prison sentence for ‘defaming’ the president. Mr Mbilinyi had questioned the murder of two opposition politicians and the appearance of mutilated bodies on the Dar es Salaam beach.

Extrajudicial violence is a relatively new phenomenon in Tanzania which previously may have lacked in Western-style democracy but never experienced severe repression. In September, Tundu Lissu, a prominent lawyer and member of parliament for the centre-right Party for Democracy and Progress (Chadema), was shot and seriously wounded near his home in the capital.

Fearing for his safety, the well-know politician and government critic was airlifted to a hospital in Nairobi, Kenya, where he spent four months undergoing treatment after surgeons removed eight bullets from his body. In January, Mr Lissu left for an undisclosed country in Europe to have a ninth bullet, lodged perilously close to his spine, removed.

The Magufuli Administration has largely ignored the attack which Mr Lissu calls an assassination attempt. The government did, however, introduce a number of draconian laws that allow it to patrol internet traffic and mandate the official registration of blogs and online forums. The publication of ‘offensive or morally improper‘ material or the dissemination of articles and/or statements that ‘cause annoyance’ have been outlawed as well.

So, far four newspapers have run afoul of President Magufuli’s edicts and were summarily closed down. Two privately-owned radio station were taken off the air. Moreover, the whistleblower website Jamii Forums has been ordered to reveal the identity of users who shared sensitive information.

The president also issues bans of things he fails to appreciate such as water pipes (shishas). Businesses in Dar es Salaam were told to stop the sale and use of water pipes over concerns the habit could conceal drugs or alcohol abuse. In another surprise move, President Magufuli called for the expulsion of pregnant girls from school. He warned: “As long as I am president, when you are expecting, you’re done. No pregnant student will be allowed to return to school.”

Whilst the rest of Africa is quickly ridding itself of pompous kleptomaniacs and silly potentates – both Mugabe and Zuma have now been sidelined – Tanzania moves in the opposite direction. So far, most Tanzanians have shrugged off their president’s antics – or laughed at them. Mr Magufuli’s erratic behaviour has sparked a social media sensation with users speculating on his next move under the hashtag #WhatWouldMagufuliDo.

Flying Economy

The president still enjoys solid popularity ratings thanks to his much-lauded and surprisingly successful drive to ban both corruption and wasteful spending practices from the country’s civil service. He has outmanoeuvred the political dinosaurs of the ruling Party of the Revolution (Chama Cha Mapinduzi), shooing them away from the levers of power.

President Magufuli ordered civil servants to be more careful with taxpayers’ money and banned government employees from attending events outside the country’s immediate vicinity. All were ordered to fly economy class and return any earned frequent flyer miles to the exchequer. He also shows up unannounced at government offices to check up on the people employed there, instantly dismissing anyone not present or hard at work. Officials tainted by accusations of cronyism were also sent home – often with a court summons as a parting gift.

Catering to popular sentiment, President Magufuli also cancelled forthcoming independence day celebrations, earmarking the money saved for specific public health programmes such as the fight against cholera.

With such gestures the president ensures his continued popularity. After years of societal and economic mismanagement, the notion that someone seems to care is enough for most Tanzanians – never mind democratic niceties. The problem is that, with his antics, President Magufuli ends up undermining the country’s economic revival. Hailed only a few years ago as Africa’s next great promise, if not the continent’s up and coming powerhouse, Tanzania is quickly moving back into ranks of troubled nations.

The country’s newfound plurality in politics now looks increasingly shaky as constitutional reforms failed to materialise which means that the structure of power has remained largely unchanged since the days of Julius Nyerere – Tanzania’s founding father – who once boasted that his powers were such that he easily could have become a dictator for life. As it happened, Mr Nyerere did govern for 21 consecutive years (1964-1985), though he entered the history books as one of only a few African leaders to step gracefully aside and hand the reins of power to his successor, albeit one he had personally selected for the job.

It is highly unlikely that President Magufuli will follow a similar path. The next election is set to take place in 2020. However, with the opposition knocked out of the political arena, a meaningful electoral contest is not in the offing. The Party of the Revolution, the longest-ruling party on the continent and presided over by Mr Magufuli, seems unable to restrain its solo-flying chairman – a revolt against the president is not in the cards.

Tanzania, then, better get used to John Magufuli who is not going anywhere anytime soon. What started out as a most refreshing government full of energy and with the best of intentions, has descended into an autocracy featuring a man who thinks the world of himself – admittedly, not unlike some leaders of superpowers. Alas, Tanzania is no superpower. The country did have a shot at becoming a regional power of note but that too seems to have been an idle hope.