European Hard Right Stopped in France and Britain

The forward march of the hard right in Europe, deemed unstoppable, has bumped into a roadblock set up by British and French voters. In a surprise outcome of the early parliamentary election, France swung to the left and kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally well short of the expected majority.

What most pundits got wrong is that in a run-off election, voters are usually led by common sense whereas in the first round the heart prevails. Whilst a significant part of the electorate would be willing to entrust Mrs Le Pen with the reins of power, they ultimately couldn’t muster the courage to vote for a political upset of such magnitude.

French voters delivered a hung parliament that requires an entente cordiale between the victorious New Popular Front, a bloc dominated by former Trotskyite Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and the centrist Ensemble coalition of President Emmanuel Macron. The NPF is on track to secure more than 180 seats in the 577-strong National Assembly with Ensemble trailing not far behind, holding on to almost 170 seats.

Though ending in third place, not all news is bad for Mrs Le Pen and her young protégé Jordan Bardella. The parliamentary bloc of the National Rally jumps from 88 to 140-plus seats. An added bonus is that both the NPF and Ensemble are far from monolithic behemoths and suffer from infighting and discord, undermining their cohesion and effectiveness.

Exuberant Trotskyite

It took just a few hours after the exit polls had revealed the NPF’s remarkable performance, for cracks to appear in the NPF after Mr Mélenchon, understandably exuberant, claimed victory and appeared to attribute the triumph to his La France Insoumise (‘France Unbowed’) party, apparently ignoring the contributions of his coalition partners: socialists, communists, and greens.

The result of Sunday’s run-off vote comes as a relief to president Macron who called the snap election against the advice of his allies after an embarrassing showing in the early-June European Parliament vote. However, he must now cobble together a coalition, a phenomenon France has little experience with. But, President Macron’s risky move did succeed in keeping Marine Le Pen and consorts out of power – and that was the whole idea all along.

The price of putting the National Rally back in its box is political uncertainty and, possibly, a bit of turmoil, though nothing comparable to the upheaval that would have followed a decisive win by the hard right. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered to resign but stays on as a caretaker until a successor has been found.

Mr Mélenchon promptly demanded the president appoint a prime minister from his New Popular Front to honor the promises made to voters: a 14% hike of the minimum wage, a return of the wealth tax, a cap on energy prices, and recognition of a Palestine State. However the La France Insoumise frontman’s domineering and self-aggrandizing ways do not sit well with the socialists who returned none other than former president François Hollande to parliament.

Conundrum

The conundrum facing President Macron need not be too difficult to disassemble. Leveraging the discomfort on the left – until recently an arena of bickering parties – Mr Macron may well be able to woo socialists and greens to distance, if not detach, them from their more esoteric and radical NPF partners.

While France tries to make sense of the election result, the British left no room for doubt and last week shoved Labour into power and Keith Starmer into Nº 10 Downing Street on a wave of popular indignation bordering revolt with bumbling Tories. After tolerating the conservatives for fourteen long years, during which the UK lost its competitive edge, saw its economy grind to a halt, and squandered much goodwill, voters at last saw some sense and kicked the conservatives out.

Though far from perfect, British democracy does possess a few redeeming features such as an immediate transfer of power. There is no transition period. The losing party is instantly ejected and its hapless prime minister expected to pack his bags and vacate the official residence in hours if not minutes. Also entertaining, the blame game amongst the losers during which knifes are sharpened and used without mercy or reason.

Entertaining Anger

This time around, former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has to bear the brunt of Tory anger after most party grandees failed to secure their own seat in parliament. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the eccentric throwback to Victorian times, is gone as are former PM Liz Truss whose time in power was famously outlived by a head of iceberg lettuce, and the eternally hopeful Penny Mordaunt, who held a heavy ceremonial sword during the coronation of King Charles and watched her popularity soar as a result – but, alas, not enough to prevent an axing at the polls. Theresa May, the post-Brexit would-be iron lady, saw the gathering of the storm and decided to hastily retire from politics.

In one of his first official acts, Prime Minister Starmer terminated and buried the silly and wasteful Rwanda Policy that would have seen undocumented foreigners arriving by boat summarily removed to the Central African country – at a cost to the British taxpayer of almost £170,000 per person.

As he begins his first full week in office, Prime Minister Starmer is rolling up his sleeves to start clearing the mess he inherited. High on the agenda are, in no particular order, rebuilding the relationship with the European Union, ending strike action at the National Health Service, and somehow infusing a measure of confidence and optimism into the national psyche, much dampened by a seemingly never-ending string of bad news. He has a clear mandate to implement Labour’s ambitious reform agenda but must do so with a depleted exchequer.

Adults in Charge

However, there are a few encouraging signs that business conditions are improving with sales and cashflow returning to pre-pandemic levels. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves pledged to “fix the foundations” of the UK economy, promising to remove impediments to infrastructure and private investment. Amongst other initiatives, she will shake up planning regulation. In a reminder of the damage wrought by Brexit, Mrs Reeves pointed out that the economy would have been £140 billion larger than it is today, had the UK followed the average growth trajectory of the OECD countries since the mid-2010, instead of lagging far behind its peers.

In line with previous Labour governments, public spending as a share of GDP is expected to fall year-on-year with Labour’s pledge to borrow only for necessary investments in infrastructure. Prime Minister Starmer cautioned against inflated expectations, explaining that it will take many years “to fix the Tory mess.”

Cover photo: Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer and Prime Minister Keith Starmer.

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© 2024 photo by UK Parliament / Maria Unger