Expanding the Legacy
Expanding the Legacy
Whilst you were not looking, a new regional superpower has emerged in Europe. Poland is determined to build the third-largest NATO army, eclipsing France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom by a wide margin. Earlier this week, foreign minister Radoslaw Sikoski announced that Poland will immediately boost its defence expenditure, already amongst the highest in NATO, to a full five percent of its GDP. Mr Sikorski justified the increase by noting that the ‘Cold War peace’ has ended. Army chief of staff General Wieslaw Kukula echoed the sentiment: “We need to prepare, and be ready to fight, an all-out conflict.”
The consensus amongst Putin whisperers in the United States and Europe is that the small man at the big table may be eventually be pacified once he sees and feels the folly of his misventure in Ukraine. In this reading of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin is but an opportunist, seizing the day and the moment (and land) whenever and wherever he can. By denying Mr Putin opportunity, so the narrative continues, he will eventually cease and desist since the price of war will have become too high or even unaffordable.
Political life in Germany was thrown into disarray after the ruling coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz was dealt a crushing defeat by voters in Thuringia and Saxony. In the former, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) cruised to victory and in the latter it’s down to a toss-up between the nationalist party and the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Officially designated an extremist party, the AfD will find it difficult to monetise its stunning victory. Securing 32.8%of the vote in Thuringia, the party needs a coalition party to in order to form a government. However, no other party is willing to engage or cooperate with the AfD. Local observers point out that, based on yesterday’s vote, assembling a majority in the state legislature seems impossible without breaching the cordon sanitaire that seeks to deny the AfD a path to power.
Successive conservative governments squandered upwards of £700 million ($900 million) on an ill-advised plan to deport failed asylum seekers to Central Africa for processing and resettlement. The scheme, promptly cancelled by the new Labour government, saw just four people leave the UK for Rwanda. They did so voluntarily and were handed £3,000 in cash to help fund their new life in Africa. On Monday, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper informed Parliament that the deportation plan had cost much more than previously thought: “It’s the most shocking waste of taxpayers’ money I’ve ever seen,” she told lawmakers. Mrs Cooper also revealed that her predecessor failed to properly inform Parliament of the policy’s total costs which according to Home Office numbers could have ballooned to £10 billion over the next six years.
When trouble arises, throwing money at it usually works wonderfully well. The problem is, of course, that the number of troubles invariably exceeds the volume of ready cash available. During the Corona Pandemic, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez made a surprise suggestion to revisit an old and almost forgotten financial instrument - the ‘consol’ (consolidated stock or consolidated annuities). A consol is equivalent to a perpetual bond. By definition, consols are not redeemable unless the issuer agrees; they merely pay interest and do so perpetually.
How to unscramble eggs. That is the question (and task) facing UK Prime Minister Keith Starmer as he meets his country’s neighbours tomorrow for a one-day summit of European leaders. The informal gathering in Blenheim, birthplace of Winston Churchill, takes place under the aegis of the European Political Community (EPC), an initiative launched by President Emanuel Macron of France in 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More than fifty heads of state and governments are expected to attend.
The forward march of the hard right in Europe, deemed unstoppable, has bumped into a roadblock set up by British and French voters. In a surprise outcome of the early parliamentary election, France swung to the left and kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally well short of the expected majority.
It was only his third day in office, however, parliament showed no mercy for Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof. In a tumultuous session, the opposition let it rip, leaving Mr Schoof gasping for air amid a veritable assault on his cabinet. The leaders of the opposition, acting in concert, demanded to know what the prime minister thinks of two of his cabinet members who have expressed concerns over ‘population replacement’ (‘omvolking), a supposedly deliberate policy to replace the native Dutch with immigrants.
On Thursday, voters in the UK will render their verdict on fourteen years of Tory rule. It is expected that the Conservative Party will receive an electoral clobbering of note. Some polls predict that the party may even be relegated to third place, behind both Labour and either the Liberal Democrats or Reform UK, the new kid on the block of Brexit provocateur and Trump-wannabe Nigel Farage.
This is how a continent sleepwalks into war. It’s not that Europe desires war, or pines for it after a hiatus of seventy years. Rather, the continent is slowly being ushered into one by immutable circumstance over which it no longer has control. It happened before. In 1914, the German...