Keep South Africa Safe. The slogan is stamped on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s favourite face mask and could well refer to more than just the Corona Pandemic. The country is embroiled in an epic struggle to save the rule of law from falling prey to the caprices of political factions not overly concerned with the welfare of the nation and, apparently, more interested in lining their own pockets and those of assorted friends and associates.

The struggle has economic and financial implications as well. After he took office in 2018 with a promise to wipe out corruption and patronage, President Ramaphosa sparked a brief renaissance of sorts. Overseas investors returned, business picked up, and consumers regained a modicum of confidence which has since proved remarkably resilient. However, the South African president has also gained an unenviable reputation for painting vast and attractive vistas that promptly fail to materialise or get bogged down in acerbic political disputes.

Mr Ramaphosa’s intention to ease regulation, cut red tape, and improve the business climate have largely stalled. A cautious man who prefers consensus over confrontation, the South African president has repeatedly run up against more ruthless adversaries – often not particularly susceptible to reason or the power of persuasion – within the governing ANC (African National Congress).

The former ANC chief negotiator at the constitutional talks in the 1990s, and reportedly Nelson Mandela’s preferred successor, Mr Ramaphosa currently fails to display the conciliatory skills that earlier helped shape the nation. With only two years left as ANC president, time is running out quickly. In fact, crunch time seems to have arrived.

Captured State

The State Capture Commission investigating allegations of widespread corruption and abuse of power under former president Jacob Zuma is entering its final weeks. The commission has certainly captured the attention of a nation disgusted and angered by reports of the systematic looting of the country. If there is one thing that unites the nation, it must be the anger at incompetent and thieving politicians and their collaborators. Videos showing shady businessmen and officials counting stacks of banknotes have been rebroadcast countless times – sparking revulsion each time anew.

Some 250 people have been ordered to testify before the State Capture Commission. Former president Zuma showed up only once – in 2019 – to deny any wrongdoing and to triumphantly walk out of the proceedings whilst accusing ‘lawless judges’ of abdicating their constitutional post for ‘political expediency’. About forty witnesses, including a former cabinet member, gave sworn statements directly implicating Mr Zuma in unlawful dealings, auctioning off executive authority to, amongst others, the now infamous Gupta family that allegedly became the de facto rulers of South Africa during Mr Zuma’s nine-year tenure.

Ordered to testify and respond to the accusations, Mr Zuma refused to show up – twice. The commission has now asked the Constitutional Court to arrest the former president for defying the summons in what is widely considered a litmus test of the rule of law. Mr Zuma remains barricaded in his sprawling Nkandla estate where about 250 members of the Military Veterans Association, donned in full battle dress, have gathered to prevent the arrest of their patron. Edward Zuma, the former president’s son, said authorities will have to kill him should they come to arrest his father.

Politicised Judges

The young Mr Zuma explained that the former president is unwilling to cooperate with the State Capture Commission because the judges have been ‘politicised’. The ensuing stalemate has both the government and the judiciary severely worried and alarmed. Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo, who presides over the commission, said that if Mr Zuma’s contempt of court is allowed to stand there ‘would be lawlessness and chaos’. According to Nicole Fritz of the legal NGO Freedom Under Law nothing less than South Africa’s constitutional project is under siege: “If action isn’t taken against Zuma, you cannot ask the average South African to respect the law and adhere to it.”

The nation is following the events closely and hopes to discover where the real power lies. President Ramaphosa has managed to rally his supporters within the ANC to reiterate the party’s unwavering support for the commission and its investigation. The party’s top six leaders have appealed to Mr Zuma to reconsider his attitude and resume cooperation with the judges.

In late February, during a meeting of the ANC national executive committee called to celebrate the party’s 109^th anniversary, President Ramaphosa repeated that the ANC has been ‘weakened’ by corruption: “The constitution and the rule of law are sacrosanct components of our democracy and all people in the country must respect these principles.”

The ANC leadership realises full well that the arrest of Mr Zuma carries the potential to split the party which may well result in it losing power. Brinkmanship is, however, not one of President Ramaphosa’s strong suits. His entire career was forged by consensus-building and avoiding conflict through compromise.

That approach now seems to have run its course. In a sign that the ANC fears a strong electoral backlash, the party has promised to vet its candidates for local elections, expected later this year, and national polls three years from now. Candidates for public offices with even minor blemishes are to be ruthlessly excluded.

That will prove a rather tough job since there are few people of any prominence left within the ANC who have not been tainted by affairs. Even the name of President Ramaphosa has popped up in relation to alleged improprieties. Initially praised for his handling of the Corona Pandemic, Mr Ramaphosa has landed in hot water after it transpired that numerous contracts for personal protective equipment had been handed to friends and ‘friends of’ who apparently became ‘overnight billionaires’ in a new and quite disconcerting phenomenon that has the nation seething with anger.

Economy Reeling but Resilient

Whilst the stalemate continues, South Africa’s economy is reeling under the impact of the pandemic. Finance Minister Tito Mboweni faces the near impossible task of reining in spending whilst preserving whatever economic impetus is left after a dreadful year. The fiscal strain is taking a heavy toll with the national debt expected to equal the country’s gross domestic product by 2026. In the absence of meaningful economic growth, and with declining tax revenues, the deficit will this year rise to a staggering eleven percent of GDP, narrowing only slowly over the next few years.

Admittedly, the Treasury Department’s own forecast had been darker still (-15%) with slightly better-than-expected tax collections providing a ‘windfall’ which the government now hopes to use for the acquisition of tens of millions of extra covid-19 vaccines. Minister Mboweni is expected to raise additional revenue by increasing excise duties on the sale of alcohol and tobacco, leaving corporate and income tax schedules unchanged. Mr Mboweni stated that he will not raise taxes on high income earners in an attempt to stem to outflow of professionals and entrepreneurs. The finance minister is also acutely aware that a failure to demonstrate resolve in bridging the deficit may yet provoke a sovereign debt crisis as investors and creditors draw their own conclusions.

South Africa has, in fact, weathered the pandemic less bad – if not relatively well – than expected and predicted. Though GDP retracted by about seven percent last year, consumer spending proved resilient. A happily timed boom in mining and agriculture has spared the country from the worst. Ultra-low interest rates have helped as well. The economy, though strained, was not obliterated by the pandemic and employment levels have remained fairly stable with most of the jobs lost at the beginning of the pandemic reappearing by late last year.

The proverbial ball now lies in President Ramaphosa’s court. Should he fail to make his predecessor comply with the constitutional court’s arrest order, South Africa may yet face a meltdown of both its political order and economy which is unlikely to withstand a breakdown in the rule of law with the attendant risk of spooking investors and creditors.

The president simply must come out on top in the current game of chicken lest he loses his last vestiges of credibility – and the power to steer the country through the pandemic. Much rides on showing Mr Zuma that even he is not a law unto himself.

Cover photo: Former president of South Africa Jacob Zuma.

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© 2009 Photo by World Economic Forum