Trump’s Wonderful Week Marks EU Misery
Brave New World
Whilst former US president Donald Trump – need we remind all and sundry that the man is a convicted felon? – had an excellent week, Europe suffered a funk of sorts as the likelihood of a Trump 2.0 administration seemed all but inevitable. Undoubtedly, Trump supporters, fans, and idolisers enjoyed a good laugh over this. And why not? The has-been continent is impotent to keep the crushing wheels of history from pulverising it. Or so it is believed.
Not only was Mr Trump duly anointed as the Republican nominee at a big party called in his honour, he also survived an assassination attempt unscathed but for a scratch on his ear, watched his opponent’s campaign founder, and to top it off, was freed from criminal prosecution over the misappropriation of White House files by a wayward judge.
Whatever anyone may think of Trump; he is often down but never out. In fact, he must be the ultimate comeback kid who cannot be stopped, derailed, or kept down. Sort of an Energizer Bunny, only less cute.
Europe’s bout of angst followed Trump’s decision to name Senator JD Vance as his running mate on the Republican ticket. Though a self-confessed Francophile and admirer of the late Charles de Gaulle, Senator Vance is no friend of Europe – at least not yet. His admiration for De Gaulle is inspired by the Frenchman’s self-confidence, if not admirable arrogance.
The Great Man did not mince his words or hesitate to flip his finger at whatever or whomever displeased him. He did so with NATO, leaving the alliance in 1966. De Gaulle considered NATO detrimental to the position of France in Europe. Also, the alliance could have – and would have – prevented the country from developing, testing, and deploying its own independent nuclear force.
Speak Up Already!
Senator Vance appreciates those who speak their mind and plot their own course. Conversely, he is not enamoured of wishy-washy, hesitant, or otherwise impaired people. A construct and edifice of compromise, the European Union does not impress Senator Vance.
Where Mr Trump regularly vents his anger over “America being ripped off” by faraway places – Taiwan was the latest to suffer his ire – Senator Vance exudes merely indifference. He confessed that he couldn’t care less about Ukraine “one way or another” and led the opposition against the $60 billion military aid package for the embattled country. He also refused to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Senator Vance does seem to think, like his new boss, that the war can be settled in a day by awarding Russia its territorial gains and imposing neutrality on the victim – thus meeting two of the Kremlin’s key demands.
Yet, Mr Vance is not a blustering isolationist like his boss and displays a measure of interest in world affairs. Until quite recently, the senator regularly spoke out against Mr Trump. He remains sceptical of big business, opposes tax cuts for the rich, and is supportive of labour unions, even joining a picket line of workers on strike.
As illustrated by his flip on Trump, Senator Vance can and does change is mind. He’ll likely prove a moderating influence on Mr Trump once the reality of big power geopolitics sets in. Also, there is no need for the EU to freak out over a Trump-Vance administration. If anything, such an administration would provide Europe with an added incentive to work more seriously and expeditiously towards its own strategic independence.
Moves Afoot
A great many moves are already afoot to accomplish just that. On October 17, EU leaders are scheduled to meet in Brussels to discuss a plan to jointly borrow many hundreds of billions euros to upgrade the bloc’s military capabilities.
The Fourth European Defence & Security Conference is the perfect venue for an ambitious statement and the unveiling of a likewise unambiguous set of policy choices. Though the Ukrainian president fears that without US assistance, Europe alone cannot support his war effort, he perhaps underestimates the continent’s resolve. True, President Zelensky is not alone in doubting European military capabilities; however most continental leaders agree that Russia cannot be allowed to win its war of aggression.
Whilst a sophisticated military-industrial complex takes time to build and scale up, it is too easy to conclude that Europe is powerless. It possesses the manpower, technology, and wherewithal to keep Russia in check – and Ukraine alive. All too often, Russia’s own sorry plight is overlooked as pessimists run amok.
The fact that the Kremlin needs to appeal for help to the likes of Iran and North Korea is particularly revealing. Also, whereas Russia is geographically oversized, the heft of its economy is much less impressive. It is about the size of Spain’s and significantly smaller than the combined GDP of the three Benelux minnows.
Moreover, an American exit from the European theatre is unlikely to happen anyway. In today’s multipolar world, friends are easily lost, but hard to come by. To project its power, the US simply needs Europe. If the Trump Administration is serious about checking China’s rise in the world, it also needs Europe.
In the end, there will be grumbling on both sides of the Atlantic, some harsh words will be spoken, a few accusations may be hurled back and forth, but when all is said and done, both the US and Europe will still be on the same side of the equation.
And what about the war in Ukraine? Expect a semi-permanent stalemate.
Brave New World is a series of shorter articles – mini-essays often slightly contrarian – that was started in the aftermath of the Corona Pandemic as the world tried to make sense of what just happened and adjust to a new normal. Whilst the effects of the pandemic have since waned, leaving only barely discernible ripples, the world order has suffered continued upheaval.
On Europe’s eastern fringe, a vicious war rages; the Palestinian conflict has flared up as never before; China threatens the stability in the South China Sea, crossed by one of the world’s most important shipping lanes; the hard right is on the march in Europe, and in the United States a good man refuses to acknowledge the inevitable ravages of old age, clinging almost desperately to power, and leaving voters little choice but to go with another old man whose democratic credentials are doubtful if not absent.
In light of this conspiracy of events – the gathering, if you will, of a ‘perfect storm’ – CFI Press has decided to resurrect its Brave New World series in an attempt to follow developments, map their consequences, and distil sense from the ‘Bitches Brew’ simmering on the stove and coming perilously close to a spill. Brave New World instalments will be published every Friday.
© 2018 image by DeviantArt
